The Diversity Factor © 2008
ISSN 1545-2808
Spring 2008
Diversity Perspectives
Volume 16, Number 2

News, Views and Gossip
Written by Wendy Conklin

U.S. Population to Reach 438 Million by 2050
A new report from the Pew Research Center projects that immigration will propel the U.S. population total to 438 million by 2050, from 303 million today. Along with this growth, the racial and ethnic profile of Americans will continue to shift with non-Hispanic whites losing their majority status.

It is no surprise that immigrants and their descendants will play a large role in future U.S. population growth, as they do now and have for much of the country's history. But the projections detailed in a new report, authored by demographer Jeffrey S. Passel and writer D'Vera Cohn, differ from previous projections from the U.S. Census Bureau by assuming that the rate of immigration will hold steady — sending the net number of immigrants from 1.4 million per year in 2005 to 2.1 million per year by 2050 as the population total rises. This assumed increase in immigrants is, as the Pew report puts it, "in line with, but somewhat slower than, the growth trend of the last several decades."

The Pew projections also offer a unique analysis of immigrants' role by taking into account the different birth rates of first-, second- and third-generation immigrants. The authors estimate that immigrants arriving after 2005, and their children and grandchildren, will account for 82 percent of the population growth between 2005 and 2050.

The report also provides considerable detail on the country's future ethnic makeup. With little immigration and low fertility, the non-Hispanic white population is projected to edge from 200 million to 207 million between 2005 and 2050, while the three other major racial and ethnic groups will see much more growth. The share of non-Hispanic whites is slated to slip from 67 percent to 47 percent over the 45-year period. Indeed, they would decline in number by 2050, if not for immigration.

With the majority population holding steady, the significant growth must come from some other group — and it does. This is where the assumptions about immigration levels become crucial. Under Pew's assumed immigration and fertility rates for major ethnic groups, the number of Hispanics will rise from 42 million to 128 million, and Asians from 14 million to 41 million.

Population Reference Bureau, February 2008

White House Briefing on Indian Country
As president of the United Southern and Eastern Tribe (USET) — a nonprofit organization that represents 25 tribal nations on the East Coast — Brian Patterson briefed the White House Indian Affairs Executive Working Group, which includes 40 representatives from various government departments and agencies who deal with American Indian policy. He focused on the president's budget, health care, education, economic development, housing, public safety, natural resources and the environment, gaming compacts, and cultural and heritage issues.

Patterson began talking about the issues by saying, "Our member tribes share a strong commitment to tribal sovereignty. We work very hard to ensure that every member tribe has the freedom to exercise tribal self-governance."

According to Patterson, the underlying foundation for economic development is tribal sovereignty, "so that tribes may self-regulate their economic affairs and interact with governments on a government-to-government basis. Too often, tribal governments are burdened with fighting off legislative and regulatory attempts to diminish their authority, instead of partnering with state and federal agencies for the betterment of all citizens."

Patterson noted that tribal economies grew at a rate almost three times higher than the general economy between 1990 and 2000 — regardless of gaming enterprises. But the average poverty rate for American Indians remains much higher than all other races in the United States.

The federal budget is one of USET's highest priorities to ensure adequate federal funding for the programs that provide services to tribal members, Patterson said.

Health care is a critical issue in Indian country. "While progress has been made, overall health indicators for American Indians are dismal and unacceptable when compared to the U.S. general population. The most encouraging results are coming from tribes where self-determination and self-governance are in fullest force," he said. By coincidence, his briefing took place on the same day that the reauthorization of the Indian Health Care Improvement Act was passed.

Patterson said that education is another critical issue for Indian country. He expressed USET's appreciation that the administration has pledged that the ''federal government will meet its responsibilities to Native American children."

On cultural heritage, USET is urging tighter legislation to protect sacred sites from the desecration of activities such as mining and the protection of sacred stone landscapes in the East, as well as issues concerning culturally identified remains and the distribution of feathers under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act.

Indian Country Today, March 07, 2008

The Same-Sex Marriage Debate
The debate over same-sex marriage shows no signs of abating. In California, for instance, a high-profile case challenging the constitutionality of a state law banning same-sex marriage was argued and won before the state's highest court earlier this month. A similar suit is on the verge of being decided by Connecticut's Supreme Court. In addition, Florida will hold a referendum during the November 2008 election on a state constitutional amendment that would prohibit gay marriage. Other states, such as Arizona and Indiana, are considering putting similar referenda on the November ballot.

Supporters of same-sex marriage contend that gay and lesbian couples should be treated no differently than their heterosexual counterparts and that they should be able to marry like anyone else. Beyond wanting to uphold the principle of nondiscrimination and equal treatment, supporters say that there are very practical reasons behind the fight for marriage equity. They point out, for instance, that homosexual couples who have been together for years often find themselves without the basic rights and privileges that are currently enjoyed by heterosexual couples who legally marry — from the sharing of health and pension benefits to hospital visitation rights.

The same-sex marriage debate is not solely an American phenomenon. Many countries, especially in Europe, have grappled with the issue as well. And since 2001, four nations — the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain and South Africa — have legalized gay marriage. In addition, the provinces of Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec in Canada now allow same-sex couples to legally marry.

The immediate future of the same-sex marriage debate appears, to a large degree, to mirror the recent past. On one hand, gay-rights advocates are now pushing for court victories in California and Connecticut. Meanwhile, opponents are looking to the November 2008 election, seeking to have constitutional gay-marriage bans placed on the ballot in as many as 10 states, including Arizona and Indiana. No one knows how these various efforts will ultimately end. But it is a safe bet that the issue will likely remain a part of the nation's political and legal landscape for years to come.

Find More Resources on Gay Marriage at www.pewforum.org

David Masci, Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, April, 10, 2008